Trump’s Tariffs Under Fire: What You Need to Know Before 14th October

by Alex Mills

Monday, September 1, 2025

On 29 August 2025, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit threw a grenade into global trade policy. In a 7-4 ruling, the court held that the President cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping import tariffs.

For UK exporters and U.S. importers alike, this isn’t just a legal squabble – it’s a live question of pricing, margins, and Q4 survival. And here’s the kicker: the court has stayed its ruling until 14 October 2025. That means the tariffs are still in place for peak-season planning, but could vanish (or shift dramatically) mid-quarter depending on what the U.S. Supreme Court does next (SCOTUSblog).

So, what actually happened, why does it matter, and – most importantly – what should your businesses do before 14 October?

What Was Ruled – and What Still Stands

The case revolved around whether IEEPA gives the President power to levy broad tariffs. The Federal Circuit said: no. Congress controls taxation, and under the “major questions” doctrine, sweeping measures like a 10% universal import duty need explicit legislative backing.

This ruling directly affects:

The “reciprocal” or “worldwide” tariffs (a baseline +10% duty on all imports under Executive Order 14257).
The opioid/fentanyl tariffs – extra duties on China and new restrictions on small-value parcels, under Executive Order 14256.

What’s not affected:

Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium (recently expanded to cover more derivatives – U.S. Department of Commerce).
Other non-IEEPA trade measures.

Bottom line: don’t confuse IEEPA tariffs with Section 232 tariffs. Steel, aluminium, and derivatives will still carry extra costs into 2026, no matter what happens in the courts (Reuters; Wall Street Journal).

The Timeline That Matters

1 Feb 2025 – IEEPA tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, China.
2 Apr – EO 14257 introduces the +10% “reciprocal tariff,” effective 5 & 9 April (CBP Guidance).
28 May – Court of International Trade strikes down IEEPA tariffs (CIT decision summary — FedCircuitBlog).
29 Aug – Federal Circuit en banc ruling: IEEPA doesn’t authorise tariffs. Stay until 14 Oct.

👉 Translation: everything hangs on whether the Supreme Court grants review. If it does, tariffs may stay through 2026. If not, importers could see immediate relief.

Why UK Exporters Should Care

If you’re a UK brand selling into the U.S., here’s what’s at stake:

1. Pricing & Margins

The baseline +10% duty layer still applies when your goods land in the U.S. (higher if the UK ends up in an escalated band in the EO annex). You need a landed cost calculator that flags Chapter 99 codes and U.S.-origin offsets.

2. Channel Mix

Selling D2C into the U.S. is tough when duties and VAT get added at checkout. Consider shifting volume to wholesale importers, who often have better tools for optimising classification and bonded warehousing.

3. Contracts

If you haven’t already, add tariff pass-through clauses and FX adjusters into U.S. distributor agreements. With this much legal flux, flexibility is your friend.

Why U.S. Retailers Should Care

For U.S. importers and retailers, the questions are different:

Refunds: If the ruling ultimately stands, importers may seek refunds for IEEPA tariffs paid since spring. But processes will be complex and contested (Argus Media).
Supply Chains: Retaliation risk from Brazil (Brazil Government release) and India (Economic Times) could tighten commodity-heavy supply chains.
Peak Season: With tariffs likely in force through Q4, inventory bought now will carry higher costs into holiday sales.

Action Plan: What to Do Before 14 October

Here’s the checklist both UK and U.S. businesses should work through now – before the legal freeze-frame ends:

Run the numbers – Build SKU-level landed cost models with CBP’s tariff codes.
Scenario plan — Prepare three playbooks:
- A: tariffs persist into 2026.
- B: tariffs fall mid-October (immediate margin tailwind).
- C: partial rollback, but Section 232 still bites.
Adjust pricing architecture – A/B test whether to absorb duties into MSRP or shift them into shipping fees.
Merchandise smartly – Promote “assembled in the U.S.” or high U.S.-content products where truthful – these can be exempted from some reciprocal tariffs.
Marketing levers – For D2C brands, consider:
- Duty calculators at checkout.
- “Delivered duty paid” messaging.
- Instalment payments (Klarna, Affirm) to soften sticker shock.
Stay close to legal updates – Bookmark SCOTUSblog and Federal Circuit Blog for real-time updates.

FAQs

Do the steel and aluminium tariffs change because of the ruling?

No. Section 232 tariffs are separate and remain unaffected (U.S. Department of Commerce).

When could tariffs actually fall?

No earlier than 14 October 2025, and only if the Supreme Court declines to extend the stay.

Will UK businesses get refunds?

Only U.S. importers of record can claim refunds, and the process will be uncertain.

What legal basis might the White House use instead?

Possible recourse to older trade statutes targeting discriminatory practices, though this is untested.

The Takeaway

Whether you’re a UK fashion brand shipping into New York or a U.S. importer trying to keep shelves stocked for Christmas, the message is the same:

👉 Don’t wait for the courts. Build tariff scenarios into your Q4 plan today.

By 14 October, the landscape could flip. The brands that win won’t be the ones who “wait and see” – they’ll be the ones who scenario-planned, adjusted pricing, and safeguarded margins before the gavel falls.